Daily Murders in Mexico Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, According to Government Data

The mean count of daily killings each month in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to fresh government statistics. Nevertheless, public safety analysts have cautioned that homicide figures could fail to indicate enhanced countrywide security.

Notable Decline in Daily Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 killings a day in November compared with roughly 87 when Sheinbaum began the presidential office in September of last year. This information was delivered by the head of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s daily press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had during these past months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, adding that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any November in the last decade.

Recent Context and Official Plan

Violent drug cartel rivalries, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to take on the trafficking organizations, have caused Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The rate peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the nation's national statistics office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate over four times higher than the United States. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. Claudia Sheinbaum has attributed her public safety approach for an apparently sharper reduction in homicides this year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the Mexican leader said: “We have a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have specific tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy works. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving information gathering and investigative work.
• Enhanced cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Data Concerns

However, public safety experts warned that focusing solely on murder numbers to paint a picture of peace was flawed. This is particularly true given the uptick in different criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“It would be excellent news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the public policy research thinktank Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the same period last year. But, missing persons cases have increased by 15% and in certain states have surged by up to 200%.

“Data on murders is not useful for estimating the situation of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have law enforcement and investigators who do not have the resources or the will to accurately recognize and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of everyday homicides was also concerning because it might mask periods when there were especially spiking numbers of murders.

“Employing the daily average makes spikes of violent crime unseen,” he concluded.

Detentions and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its safety strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 people were arrested between last October and this past November for serious crimes, according to official data. Over 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't accuse President Sheinbaum of doing nothing, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” commented Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Public Anger

Yet notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico continues to be grappling with extreme violence, with multiple states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. Last month there was a notable assassination of a popular local official in the region of Michoacan, among 10 local leaders killed in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, many thousands of young people took to the streets in Mexico City and across the nation to express their frustration at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration frames [data] in a way to construct a narrative of safety. From a political standpoint it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.